Possibility portfolio · experimental operating system

Preserve the abundance. Spend the scarcity carefully.

Ideas can be captured cheaply without becoming obligations. The Active Frontier is the deliberately small subset currently receiving scarce attention, testing, handoff or realization effort.

Operating rule

Capture promiscuously. Commit selectively. Realize deliberately.

The method is a pragmatic synthesis of exploration/exploitation, innovation portfolio management, real-options thinking, idea-management research and adjacent-possible work. It is not presented as a new theory of innovation.

Work-in-progress limit

Three substantial bets.

A fourth exciting idea does not silently become a fourth project.

The default Active Frontier limit is 3. New candidates enter when a slot is free, an incumbent leaves, capacity demonstrably increases, or a time-sensitive candidate clearly deserves an explicit exception.

An idea in the portfolio is an option, not a task.

Read the operating method ↗

Active frontier

Where scarce attention is going now.

Each active item must have a concrete next action designed to change the decision, not merely generate more prose.

A01

Cognitive tools for expanding the effective adjacent possible

Develop the programme's meta aim as a lineage-grounded synthesis: cognitive tools matter insofar as they improve the capacity to generate, recognize, validate and realize worthwhile possibilities, thereby changing the reachable frontier.

Worthwhile future: A research programme and personal operating criterion oriented toward increasing reachable worthwhile futures rather than maximizing idea output.

Capacity created: direction-setting · selection criterion · search capacity · future option value

Next discriminating action: Publish a lineage-grounded research note, then derive a small set of testable questions that distinguish frontier expansion from simple idea generation.

Lineage: established adjacent-possible/effective-adjacent-possible antecedents + synthesis/extension

active
A02

Distributed discovery provenance

Operationalize provenance for human-AI discovery episodes by separating framing, generation, recognition, validation, integration, realization, priority and epistemic authority using standards-first provenance.

Worthwhile future: Research objects whose discovery process can be inspected without collapsing human and machine contributions into a single author/discoverer label.

Capacity created: provenance capacity · validation routing · credit legibility · research reproducibility

Next discriminating action: Represent one real Agalmic Research discovery episode end-to-end in PROV-O-aligned JSON-LD plus CRediT and local authority metadata; identify where existing standards fail.

Lineage: established computational-discovery/philosophy antecedents + operationalization opportunity

active
A03

Economics of epistemic abundance: formalize shifting constraints

Move beyond the verbal Displaced Scarcity Hypothesis by specifying when an abundance shock changes binding constraints, shadow values, rents or market power, and distinguishing complementarity, substitution and induced-demand regimes.

Worthwhile future: A falsifiable economics framework for understanding which scarce complements become valuable as machine cognition makes candidate production cheaper.

Capacity created: formal reasoning · empirical test design · policy analysis · research prioritization

Next discriminating action: Construct the smallest two- or three-input model in which one input becomes abundant; test whether the proposed comparative statics say anything beyond standard bottleneck/complementarity results.

Lineage: mature antecedents + formal novelty unassessed

active

Frontier filter

Direction before excitement.

A candidate is assessed across separate dimensions rather than collapsed into one pseudo-precise score: worthwhile-future relevance, frontier leverage, information gain, realization/handoff path, attention burden, lineage confidence, urgency and uncertainty.

The promotion question is: if scarce capacity is spent here, what valuable future becomes more reachable?

High uncertainty is not an automatic rejection. It is often a reason to buy information cheaply. High polish is not evidence of feasibility, and apparent infeasibility can unfairly penalize genuinely original ideas.

Preserved options

Worth keeping. Not active obligations.

These ideas retain option value without consuming an Active Frontier slot.

O01

Epistemic handoff pilot

Test whether claim-sensitive, provenance-preserving routing to missing expertise improves evaluation of low-authority contributions without erasing originators or overwhelming expert attention.

Next discriminating action: Design a minimal pilot around a small set of public research claims and recruit one or two domain reviewers before specifying platform machinery.

Lineage: knowledge brokerage/absorptive-capacity antecedents + narrow operational extension

option
O02

Innovation is search, but search is not enough

A research note connecting established innovation-as-search work to the machine-cognition regime, where larger search breadth can worsen the selection, testing and realization bottlenecks.

Next discriminating action: Publish only if the note clarifies a testable or operational consequence not already covered by the meta-aim note.

Lineage: established search literature + explanatory synthesis

option
O03

What should we make abundant next?

Examine which upstream forms of abundance, such as knowledge, algorithms, energy, compute, standards or access, most strongly expand feasible future capability sets.

Next discriminating action: Run a lineage review across endogenous growth, general-purpose technologies, capability theory, energy economics and algorithmic progress before drafting a claim.

Lineage: novelty unassessed; requires growth/capability/technology lineage review

option
O04

Allocation of scarce expert attention

Study mechanisms for allocating scarce specialist evaluation when candidate production outgrows expert review capacity, while avoiding credential capture, pay-to-be-heard dynamics and filter monopoly.

Next discriminating action: Map existing expert-review markets, peer review, prediction/forecasting, prize and intermediary mechanisms before proposing any new market design.

Lineage: existing expert-evaluation/attention/intermediary antecedents; narrower delta unassessed

option
O05

Representation as discovery through Nemosyne/Moneta

Use Nemosyne/Moneta as an applied testbed for whether alternative representations can increase what analysts can notice and act upon while controlling cognitive and computational cost.

Next discriminating action: Continue empirical Nemosyne verification and connect measured representation improvements to the effective-adjacent-possible framing only after evidence exists.

Lineage: broad representation/visual analytics antecedents; concrete technical novelty unassessed

option
Parked

Preserved, but not presently directionally competitive.

Parking retains provenance and reversal conditions without pretending every interesting branch deserves current attention.

P01

Human-Scale Epistemic Horizon

Explore institutional consequences if reliable frontier knowledge increasingly exceeds what any individual human can personally survey or defend.

Revisit: Keep parked until nearer-term distributed-discovery and verification work yields concrete evidence or mechanisms.

parked

Public boundary

This is only the public-safe portfolio.

Potentially patentable, confidential, personally sensitive or otherwise non-public ideas should use the same schema in a private store. Their absence from this page does not mean they do not exist or were rejected.

The public JSON projection is versioned in the repository at src/data/possibilityPortfolio.json ↗.

Use the capture and frontier-review prompt ↗